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Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis: Some Empirical Tests for Pakistan Based on Blanchard-Evans Models
Aqdas Ali Kazmi
Published:Jan - June 2001
During the last three decades, the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis
(REH) has been an important theme of economic research both theoretical
and applied in the industrial countries especially the US. However, very
limited work has been done in the developing countries to test the validity
and consistency of this hypothesis. In this paper an attempt has been made
to present some empirical tests of the hypothesis for Pakistan using the
macroeconomic data for the period 1960-88 based on the standard
Blanchard-Evans Models of intertemporal allocation of resources as affected
by the perceptions of the consumers about debt accumulation. The paper
has been divided into three parts. In part-I, a brief introduction to the
Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis as well its origins has been delineated. In
part-II, the Blanchard (1985) Model has been outlined along with the
testable hypotheses as derived by Evans (1988). Part-III summarily presents
the results of the Blanchard-Evans Models as applied to Pakistan data. These
results fail to validate the Ricardian Equivalence Hypotheses for Pakistan.
However the results are sensitive to the manner in which the critical
variable namely “wealth” is defined and the manner in which the models are
estimated. Therefore, further research is required on the subject especially
in the contest of Pakistan’s economy which has accumulated large public
debt so as to analyse precisely the extent to which public debt is discounted
by the consumers as future tax liabilities.
KEYWORDS:
Ricardian Equivalence, Pakistan, Blanchard-Evans Models.
JEL:
N/A.
Socioeconomic Aspects of Child Labour A Case Study of Children in Auto Workshop
Rana Ejaz Ali Khan
Published:Jan - June 2001
Federal Minister for Labour Manpower and Overseas Pakistanis,
Omar Asghar Khan has announced the draft of the labour policy. The policy
focuses on the law to eliminate child labour in the country. According to
the Minister the law would be implemented from January 2001 and before
the year 2005 there would be no child or bonded labour in Pakistan.
Moreover, Under ILO obligation Pakistan has to achieve the objective of
elimination of child and bonded labour by the year 2005. ILO plans to
impose sanctions on the exports of those countries where child and bonded
labour continues. Furthermore, the country has to abide with the
convention of the International Labour Organization as a member of this
club1.
Most of the studies about child labour in Pakistan are based on
micro-data. The present study/survey is another addition to the previous
studies with some additional variables. The focus of the study is socioeconomic aspects of child labour in auto-workshops, as 18 per cent of child
labour is engaged in this establishment2
. Some comparisons between the
conclusions of the present survey and that of the previous ones have also
been made. On the basis, policy recommendations have also been proposed.
KEYWORDS:
Child labour, Pakistan, ILO, legislation.
JEL:
N/A.
Published:Jan - June 2001
credit? This question has acquired some urgency in the wake of the recent Shariat Court ruling banning interest in Pakistan. Some pundits have pronounced that great harm will result from the banning of interest1. Actually, such pronouncements are based on a lack of understanding of both the modern economic system, as well as the nature of the Islamic prohibition of interest. As we hope to demonstrate clearly below, the modern economy can function very well, indeed better in some ways2, with a prohibition on interest rate payments of the Islamic type.
KEYWORDS:
Interest-based credit, modern economy, Islamic system, bank credit, Pakistan.
JEL:
N/A.
Obstacles Facing Saudi Exporters of Non-Oil Products
Mohammed Duliem Al-Qahtany
Published:Jan - June 2001
This study explores the obstacles facing Saudi exporters of non-oil
products. The sampling frame comprised 411 firms, which have been
involved in exporting for at least two years as identified by the Saudi Export
Development Center. The research has investigated twenty five obstacles
that have some relation to non-oil export products. Competition with
foreign firms was found to be the first obstacle with the highest mean of
(3.212) followed by lack of information about potential export markets with
a mean of (2.887). Moreover, with regard to the ways Saudi exporters might
overcome these obstacles, the investigations suggested to Saudi exporting
firms fifteen factors that might improve Saudi non-oil exporting products.
KEYWORDS:
Saudi, crude oil, non-oil, exports, competition, targeted markets.
JEL:
N/A.
Capacity Utilisation in the Large-Scale Manufacturing Sector: An Empirical Analysis
Rukhsana Kalim
Published:Jan - June 2001
This paper is concerned with the quantification of the rate of
capacity utilisation and its major determinants in the large-scale
manufacturing sector of Pakistan. A cross-section analysis has been made for
68 five digit industries for the period 1995-96. A number of hypothesis have
been tested using the regression technique. Keeping in view the problem of
load shedding in Pakistan, it has been taken as an important variable
affecting the rate of capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector.
Regression results are in conformity with the earlier studies that supply
factors are playing a major role in determining the rate of capacity
utilisation. Among supply factors electricity consumption has appeared to be
statistically significant.
KEYWORDS:
Pakistan, manufacturing, capacity utilisation, models, positive relationship.
JEL:
N/A.
Note: The Economy of Seepage and Leakage in Asia: The most dangerous issue
Gilbert Etienne
Published:Jan - June 2001
Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, China and other
Asian countries already face very serious challenges in infrastructure,
agriculture, State owned enterprises and environment. Inspite of the
increase in private investments, local or from outside, the situation could
get worse in the next decade or so for lack of public finance. Such a
shortage is bound to slow down future growth, particularly in China,
Indonesia and Vietnam, and prevent an acceleration of growth in South
Asia. One major remedy would be to reduce seepage and leakage of public
money which has taken on such enormous proportions, that it looks like
being the most critical issue for the coming decades.
The leakages so often referred to in Pakistan are, in fact, far from
confined to that country, as shown below. However, such leakages have
worse effects in Pakistan than in India and China, because of the much
more precarious financial situation of Pakistan
KEYWORDS:
Seepage, leakage, Asia, corruption, misallocation, resources, public expenditure.
JEL:
N/A.
Book Reviews: A New Institutional Approach to Economic Development
Shamyla Chaudhry
Published:Jan - June 2001
Satu Kahkonen and Mancur Olson (Eds.), A New Institutional Approach to
Economic Development; Vistaar Publications, New Delhi, 2000. pps 354.
Price Rs. (Indian) 595/-.
Recent successes attributed to the field of economics have been
outside the theoretical conservative boundaries of the subject. Modern
economic thought is expanding rapidly in all directions: in the study of
politics, law, and sociology, economists and other specialists using theories
of economic thought and models have had significant influence. The book
focuses on ideas that have driven the expansion of economics, namely
collective choice, new institutionalist and neo classical political economy.
The book has been divided into two main parts. The first deals with “the
broadening of economics and emergence of an integral approach to social
science” that are fundamental to any economy. The second part includes
“some applications of the integrated approach” to India
KEYWORDS:
Book review, economic development, India, Indian economy.
JEL:
N/A.
Book Reviews: Transforming Urban Settlements, The Orangi Pilot Project’s Low-Cost Sanitation Model
Nina Gera
Published:Jan - June 2001
S. Akbar Zaidi, Transforming Urban Settlements, The Orangi Pilot
Project’s Low-Cost Sanitation Model, City Press, Karachi, 2000, Price: Pak
Rs. 225/-.
This book is the story of the formulation and implementation of the
Orangi Pilot Project’s Sanitation Model, and it is told with clarity and
intelligence. Indeed, in this age of self-seeking and egoism, indifference and
callousness, it is heartening to note that at least some amongst us
somewhere still show a modicum of concern for the marginalised and less
privileged in our societies. It is ample indication of the author’s empathy
and identification with the human condition in its entirety.
KEYWORDS:
Orangi pilot project, Orangi, Pakistan, sanitation model, OPP, Water Aid.
JEL:
N/A.
Economic Analysis of Supply Response in Pakistan’s Agriculture
Muhammad Ali Chaudhary
Published:July - Dec 2000
This study represents an attempt at estimating the farmer supply
response to different economic and material incentives. Several
researchers have estimated the cultivator supply response to different
techno-economic factors (Cummings, 1975a and 1975b; Askari and
Cummings, 1977; Cooley, 1973; Chen, Courteny and Schmitz, 1972;
Ghoshal, 1975; Tweeten, 1986). However, as agriculture modernises, the
relative significance of different factors affecting farm inputs and outputs
changes; factors regarded as significant determinants of farmer decision at
one time may not be relevant at another time. Similarly, the
transformation of agriculture in the desirable direction invariably
necessitates and at times renders desirable the use of new measures and
policy instruments. How farmers react to changes in market forces and
government measures is important to know in different ways. In fact,
policy makers are interested in knowing the appropriateness, effectiveness
and impact of measures for the ultimate formation or legislation of farm
regulations.
KEYWORDS:
Pakistan, agriculture, supply response, legislation, farming regulations.
JEL:
N/A.
Towards a New Solution Mechanism for Corporate Bankruptcy
Omar Chaudry
Published:July - Dec 2000
A firm may resort to leverage in its capital structure for a variety of
reasons; to capture the benefits of the tax shield of debt, to signal to the
market that it sees a bright future for itself, or as a commitment device to
reduce financial slack. Unforeseen circumstances, however, may force the
firm into a situation where it is unable to pay its debts. If the environment
is such that the firm has a single creditor, emerging from a situation like
this may not pose too much of a problem. However, problems are likely to
arise if there are multiple creditors. A resource-wasting race is likely to
ensue as the creditors try to “be first” to seize the firm’s assets (in the case
of a secured loan) or to obtain a judgement against the firm (in the case of
an unsecured loan). This race may lead to a dismantling of the firm’s assets,
which may mean a loss in value if the firm is worth more as an entity than
it is as a collection of pieces.
KEYWORDS:
Corporate bankruptcy, bankruptcy, transaction costs, bankruptcy procedure, mechanism.
JEL:
N/A.